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OK0NAG > SOLAR    14.03.10 03:06l 226 Lines 6979 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 13 Mar 2010 23:29:24 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 13 2327 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: Corrected Copy ::::::::::

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24

hours. Region 1054 (N15E15) showed growth and is now magnetically

classified as a Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels for the next three days (14-16 March). 

C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for

an isolated M-class event from this region.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high 
levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at mostly quiet levels on the first day (14 March)

and then at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day two and three

(15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and

solar sector boundary crossing.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Mar 092

Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar  092/093/094

90 Day Mean        13 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  006/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  003/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  005/007-007/007-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/30/30

Minor storm           05/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/35/35

Minor storm           05/15/15

Major-severe storm    01/05/05

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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