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OK0NAG > SOLAR    05.04.10 00:07l 257 Lines 8053 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 4 Apr 2010 22:05:20 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Apr 04 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z

to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed

during the past 24 hours. New Region 1060 (N24E58) was assigned

today and appears to be a small bipolar region.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class event during

the next three days (05-07 April).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, there

was an isolated active period at mid-latitudes from 0600-0900Z which

was accompanied by storm level activity at some high latitude

stations. Solar wind speed observed by the ACE spacecraft were

elevated throughout the day, typically between 460-540 km/s. The

greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached

high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet with a chance for unsettled periods for the

first day (05 April) and partway through the second day (06 April).

An increase to mostly unsettled levels with a chance for active

periods is expected sometime late on the second day or early on the

third day (07 April) in response to a favorably positioned coronal

hole. Yesterday's halo CME appears to be primarily directed south of

the ecliptic plane. However, it is possible that the flank of the

CME could contribute to somewhat elevated activity on the third day.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Apr 079

Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  080/080/085

90 Day Mean        04 Apr 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  005/007-007/010-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/25/35

Minor storm           01/10/20

Major-severe storm    01/01/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/30/40

Minor storm           05/15/30

Major-severe storm    01/01/10



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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