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OK0NAG > SOLAR    04.06.11 00:06l 237 Lines 7834 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 03 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1226 (S22W14) produced

a C2/Sf flare at 03/1617Z.  This region is a Dkc group with a beta

magnetic classification.  All other numbered regions on the disk

remained stable through the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to low with

a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,

and isolated major storm levels at high latitudes, for day one (04

June).  Activity is expected due to the combination of effects from

a coronal hole high-speed stream and a CME observed on 02 June.

Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions are

expected for day two (05 June).  Day three (06 June) is expected to

be quiet to unsettled as activity effects subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Jun 107

Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  106/104/102

90 Day Mean        03 Jun 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  020/025-015/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/30/15

Minor storm           20/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                45/35/25

Minor storm           25/20/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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