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OK0NAG > SOLAR    09.06.11 23:06l 243 Lines 8031 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 09 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z

to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S20W95) produced a

C4/Sf flare at 09/0348Z as it neared the west limb. New Region 1234

(S16E59) produced a C1 flare at 09/1028Z. Region 1234 was classified

as a Bxo group with a simple bipolar structure. No Earth-directed

coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to very low

through the period (10 - 12 June) with a chance for an isolated

C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater

than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is

forecast to increase to unsettled to active levels early on day 1

(10 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of

the halo-CME observed on 07 June. Activity is expected to decrease

to quiet to unsettled levels during 11 - 12 June. There will be a

chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous

orbit on day 1 due to the expected CME arrival.

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     50/25/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           09 Jun 088

Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  088/088/088

90 Day Mean        09 Jun 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  018/025-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/20/10

Minor storm           25/10/01

Major-severe storm    15/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/30/20

Minor storm           30/20/05

Major-severe storm    20/10/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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