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OK0NAG > SOLAR    12.06.11 00:04l 253 Lines 8263 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 11 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z

to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Occasional

B-class x-ray flares occurred. There were three small,

simply-structured spots groups on the disk, including newly-numbered

Region 1235 (N14E27). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections

occurred during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low through the period (12 - 14 June) with a slight chance for a

C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. Active levels

occurred during 11/0300 - 0600Z, associated with a period of

increased interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt (peak 10 nT) and

southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -8 nT). ACE solar wind data

indicated a co-rotating interaction region occurred during the first

half of the period, in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream

(CH HSS). The CH HSS commenced around 11/1025Z, followed by a

gradual increase in solar wind speeds (380 to 460 km/s) during the

rest of the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 3  (12 -

14 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to CH HSS

effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Jun 085

Predicted   12 Jun-14 Jun  084/084/084

90 Day Mean        11 Jun 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun  007/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun  012/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  008/008-008/008-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/15

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/25/20

Minor storm           15/15/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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