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OK0NAG > SOLAR    06.01.12 00:05l 283 Lines 9621 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 05 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours with two C-class events observed. The first C-class

flare was from Region 1390 (N09W71), which had an associated Type II

radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 695 km/s. Due to the

location of this region, and the lack of a CME in imagery, no Earth

impacts are expected. The second C-class flare was a long duration

C2 flare at 05/1238Z from an eruptive filament channel, located

around Region 1392 (N21W19). The associated CME can be seen in

STEREO ahead and behind imagery and is not expected to impact

Earth. Finally, a new Region emerged on the disk early in the period

and was numbered as Region 1393 (N18W03).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next

three days (06 - 08 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the

past 24 hours. From 05/1200-1500Z, the mid latitudes observed

unsettled conditions while an isolated period at minor storm levels

was observed at high latitudes. This small increase in activity was

due to a sustained period of the negative Bz component of the

Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the

ACE spacecraft, fluctuated around 340 km/s throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (06 January),

unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm

levels at high latitudes on day two (07 January) and predominantly

unsettled levels on day three (08 January). The increase in activity

is due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Jan 141

Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  140/140/140

90 Day Mean        05 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/008-014/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/30/30

Minor storm           01/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/25

Minor storm           20/35/10

Major-severe storm    10/40/01

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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