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OK0NAG > SOLAR    14.01.12 15:02l 125 Lines 4743 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jan 14 1256 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU014
UGEOA 30512 20114 1230/ 9930/
11142 20142 30142
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 14 Jan 2012 until 16 Jan 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 001
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2012  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 010
COMMENT: A C4.1 flare has just occurred, peaking at 12h09 UT. SDO/AIA
131 images indicate that the flare is originating in an active region
turning on to the east limb. Several new sunspot groups appeared on the

disk during the past 48 hours, following new flux emergence: two groups

in the northern hemisphere (Cat 11 corresponding to NOAA AR 11396 and
Cat 12 corresponding to NOAA AR 11398) and two groups in the southern
hemisphere (Cat 13 corresponding to NOAA AR 11397 and Cat 15 for which

no NOAA AR is defined yet). These groups have all beta magnetic field
configuration and have the capability of producing C-flares. We thus
expect eruptive (C-flaring) conditions with a small chance for an
M-flare during the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and

expected to remain so for the next 24 hours after which some disturbed

conditions may follow due to the high speed wind arrival from the narrow

elongated coronal hole.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 075, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20114 1230/ 13///
10092 21240 3008/ 4//// 80306 90270
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 20114 1230/ 14/08 14107
10005 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50050 60008 46713 00000
10008 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60006 40921 00000
10011 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50080 60013 11326 02000
10012 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50070 60013 41313 04000
10013 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60004 22318 02000
10015 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60003 20612 00000
10016 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 27922 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 13119 06832 03009 46215 21404 06003 10521 2/802 07007 
12824 24407 08004 23622 31404 09000 40115 0/101 
USSPS 21305 13161 07332 07005 46512 21304 06002 40412 01206 04002 
10111 2/802 05006 12426 31409 07002 23420 21302 
USSPS 81202 14019 12622 01016 46712 34309 08005 40913 31413 05003 
40521 14302 09001 20913 01202 07002 22819 01206 10003 28023 3/801 
06011 12027 34323 
USSPS 31405 14081 11942 05005 46713 22308 08003 40921 21306 11008 
11326 34413 12007 41313 24413 13004 22318 24404 15001 20612 01203 
16001 27922 0/102 
UMAGF 30503 20114 1004/ 13063 1/006 22111 30110 
UMAGF 31523 20114 ///// 1300/ 1/008 23331 31111 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

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