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OK0NAG > SOLAR    15.01.12 00:02l 237 Lines 7970 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2012 Jan 14 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2012

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past

24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare was observed at 14/1318Z from new

sunspot Region 1401 (N15E73). Three other new regions were numbered

in the past 24 hours, Region 1399 (S24E69), Region 1400 (S14W04),

and Region 1402 (N26E75). Even though Region 1401 and 1402 have just

rotated onto the visible disk, imagery and data from the STEREO B

spacecraft has shown these regions are active.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels with a chance for more M-class events for the next three

days (15 - 17 January), as Regions 1401 and 1402 continue to rotate

onto the disk.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (15

- 16 January). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected

on day three (17 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream

becomes geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Jan 132

Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  135/135/135

90 Day Mean        14 Jan 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  008/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  004/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/10

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor storm           01/01/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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