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CX2SA  > SWPC     02.07.12 00:21l 61 Lines 2580 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62440-CX2SA
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Sent: 120701/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:62440 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:62440-CX2SA

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N16E03)
produced an M2/Sb at 01/1918Z. The region did not show any
significant growth or decay during the period. Region 1515 (S17E17)
continued to grow in areal coverage and is now 850 millionths. New
Region 1517 (N19E26) was numbered overnight.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class flares likely for the next three days (02-04 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes along with an isolated
major storm period from 01/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speeds were steady
at approximately 650 km/s with a total field strength of 5 nT
throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active storm
periods on days one and two (02-03 July) due to continued CH HSS
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (04
July) as effects from the CH HSS begin to wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 133
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 119
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  013/018-013/015-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/15


Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.

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