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OK0NAG > SOLAR    02.07.12 15:45l 123 Lines 4613 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2012 Jul 02 1340 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU184
UGEOA 30512 20702 1307/ 9930/
12022 20022 30022
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Jul 2012 until 04 Jul 
2012
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jul 2012  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 017
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at eruptive levels. Three M-class
flares were observed during the past 24h. An M2.8 flare peaking at 19:18

UT yesterday and an M1.1 flare with peak time today at 00:35 UT both
originated in NOAA AR 1513 (Catania 96). They were followed by an M5.6

flare with peak time at 10:52 UT in NOAA AR 1515 (Catania 99). SDO/AIA

images show that this last flare was associated with a CME. Taking into

account that the location of the active region is central on the solar

disk, we expect this CME to be geo-effective. Further analysis will
follow once more coronograph images become available. In addition to
these large flares, both active regions mentioned above also produced
multiple C-class flares. These active regions are growing in size and
number of spots and are likely to produce more flaring activity, with a

considerable possibility for another M-flare. A weak type II radio burst

was observed around 05:10 UT, probably associated to the C3.5 flare
peaking in NOAA AR 1515 at 05:08 UT.
The solar wind is still dominated by a high speed wind stream from a
coronal hole. The average solar wind speed lies around 650 km/s. The
southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuates
between -5nT and 5nT. As a consequences, both local and interplanetary

K-indices show moderate (K=3) to active (K=4) activity levels. We expect

the high speed stream effects to wane from tomorrow onwards.



TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 092, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 20702 1307/ 01///
1//// 21330 3//// 4//// 8//// 9////
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END

INDAA 20625
1/008 01202 50160 33038 01600 9/020
2/012 02401 60160 08012 00200 9/012
3/005 00800 80050 24024 01201 2/012
4/005 00802 50160 12016 00500 5/012
5/008 00800 50050 09009 00901 2/008
6/016 03303 30830 60060 04604 6/047
7/033 03303 30460 33038 04603 8/038
END
 
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