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OK0NAG > SOLAR    12.07.12 00:12l 169 Lines 9137 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 11 Jul 2012 22:00:36 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2012
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520
(S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the
period.  The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521.
Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer
spots while developing additional sheer.  The region remained a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.  During the past 24
hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a
gamma configuration in its trailer spots.  The region is now
classified as an E-type beta-gamma group.  A 20 degree long filament
erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z.  The
eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22.  Limited
LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb
likely associated with the filament eruption.  Further analysis of
this CME is ongoing.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three
days (12 - 14 July).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from
11/0600 - 1200Z.  ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained
steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (12 - 14 July).
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 162
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  160/160/155
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 126
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05


Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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