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OK0NAG > SOLAR    11.03.10 00:07l 237 Lines 7302 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 10 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares

occurred during the past 24 hours. The first was estimated to be a

B3 at 0713Z from spotless plage (in the location of old Region 1046.

The x-ray flux maximum was estimated because it occurred during

GOES-14 eclipse). This event was associated with a CME from the East

limb. The second event was a B1.7 at 1534 UTC that originated from

newly emerged Region 1054 (N12E56), which is currently a small BXO

beta sunspot group. There also appeared to be emerging flux and

possible spot formation near S23W00 but observations are too

preliminary to warrant a Region number assignment.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low for the next three days (11-13 March). However, there is a

slight chance for an isolated C-class event from the newly emerging

regions if they continue to grow.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24

hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet for the next three days (11-13 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           10 Mar 080

Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  082/082/082

90 Day Mean        10 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/05/10

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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