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OK0NAG > SOLAR    12.03.10 00:07l 253 Lines 7922 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 11 Mar 2010 22:02:03 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 11 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z

to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted

of a few, low-level B-class events. The largest of these was a B4/Sf

at 2039Z from Region 1054 (N15E43). This region showed steady growth

throughout the day and is classified as a D type group. The total

sunspot area increased to about 160 millionths near the end of the

period. New Region 1055 (S23W15) also continued to emerge slowly and

is currently a C-type group with about 30 millionths in area.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from

Region 1054 or 1055.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and was

mostly unsettled to active at high latitudes. However, there were

some isolated storm intervals at high latitudes between 0000-1200Z.

Solar wind observations from ACE showed elevated velocities around

460-500 km/s with low density (1-3 p/cc). The signatures are

consistent with a weak high speed stream, presumably from the

southward extension of the northern polar coronal hole.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 March). An

increase to quiet to unsettled is possible on the third day (14

March) due to effects from a recurrent solar sector boundary.

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Mar 084

Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  085/085/085

90 Day Mean        11 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  005/005-005/005-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/10/25

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/10/30

Minor storm           01/05/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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