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OK0NAG > SOLAR    13.03.10 00:08l 273 Lines 8583 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 12 Mar 2010 22:03:56 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 12 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 12/1827Z

from Region 1054 (N15E29). Region 1054 continues to show a slow

growth trend. Region 1055 (S24W27) was quiet and mostly unchanged

during the past 24 hours. A CME was observed on the east limb at

about 11/2330Z and appeared to be associated with the eruption of a

filament in the northeast quadrant.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.

Additional C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight

chance for an isolated M-class event from this region.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled at mid-latitudes,

with one active period at some stations from 0300-0600Z. The high

latitudes observed quiet to active levels with some isolated storm

periods between 0300-0600Z, and from 1200-1500Z. Solar wind

velocities remained elevated through the period, generally ranging

between 500-580 km/s. There appeared to be a decreasing trend during

the last 4 hours of the period, with day-end speed values around 480

km/s. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed

stream from the southward extension of the northern polar coronal

hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels

during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active

periods for the first day (13 March) due to persistence. Quiet to

unsettled levels (with a chance for active periods) are expected on

days two and three (14-15 March) due to possible effects from a

recurrent solar sector boundary.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Mar 090

Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  092/094/095

90 Day Mean        12 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  009/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  009/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/010-007/007-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/25

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/30/30

Minor storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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