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OK0NAG > SOLAR    15.03.10 00:14l 235 Lines 7254 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 14 Mar 2010 22:02:05 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 14 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. Region 1054 (N14E01) produced two C-class flares. The C-class

event at 13/2349Z was a long duration C1.5 SF flare associated with

a partial halo CME and a sympathetic disappearing filament. Region

1054 has shown little growth and still magnetically classified as a

Beta-Gamma. No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels for the next three days (15-17 March).

C-flares are likely from Region 1054.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24

hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit

reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days

(15-16 March) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and

a solar sector boundary crossing. Geomagnetic activity is expected

to decrease to quiet levels on day three (17 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Mar 089

Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  089/090/091

90 Day Mean        14 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  002/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  007/007-007/007-005/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/30/10

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/30/10

Minor storm           15/15/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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