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OK0NAG > SOLAR    16.03.10 00:16l 233 Lines 7080 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 15 Mar 2010 22:03:47 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 15 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z

to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1054 (N14W14) has showed slight decay but continues

to maintain its magnetic Beta-Gamma configuration. No new regions

were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels for the next three days (16-18 March).

C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for

an isolated M-class event also from this region.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached

high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days

(16-18 March). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent

coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and day two, and a slow

moving partial halo CME observed on 13 February arriving late on day

three.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Mar 086

Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  086/086/087

90 Day Mean        15 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  007/007-007/007-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/30

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/25/30

Minor storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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