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OK0NAG > SOLAR    17.03.10 00:09l 233 Lines 7164 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 16 Mar 2010 22:04:20 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 16 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24

hours. Region 1054 (N14W25) was in a gradual decay phase with

decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic

complexity. No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low levels for the next three days (17-19 March) with a chance

for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1054.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a minor

increase is speed values ranging from 350-440 km/s indicating the

arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days

(17-18 March) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and

the arrival of partial halo CME arriving on day two. Geomagnetic

activity levels are expected to return to quiet levels on day three

(19 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Mar 085

Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  084/084/084

90 Day Mean        16 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  007/007-007/007-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/30/10

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/30/10

Minor storm           15/15/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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