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OK0NAG > SOLAR    18.03.10 00:04l 241 Lines 7445 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 17 Mar 2010 22:03:21 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 17 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z

to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1054 (N15W37) was in a gradual decay phase with

decreased spot count and area. Region 1056 (N17E46) was numbered

today and is magnetically classified as a Beta.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next

three days (18-20 March).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes for the

past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period at high latitudes

between 0300Z - 0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE

spacecraft showed elevated velocities around 520 km/s and densities

around (1-3 p/cc). These signatures are consistent with a coronal

hole high-speed stream, presumably from the northward extension of

the southern polar coronal hole.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (18 March)

due to the arrival of a partial-halo CME observed on 13 March.

Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days two

and three (19-20 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Mar 087

Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar  087/087/088

90 Day Mean        17 Mar 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  006/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  007/007-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/10/05

Minor storm           15/05/01

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/10/05

Minor storm           15/05/01

Major-severe storm    05/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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