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OK0NAG > SOLAR    25.03.10 23:51l 265 Lines 8181 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 25 Mar 2010 22:49:59 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Mar 25 2247 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z

to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1057 (N15E45) has shown steady growth in area (400

millionths) and is still classified as a D group. Several B-class

flares were observed from Region 1057, the largest being a B7,

optically uncorrelated event, at 25/0433Z. A far-sided CME was

observed at 25/0128Z with an associated Type II radio sweep (shock

velocity 1395 km/s), but does not look to be geoeffective. Region

1058 (N27W06) was numbered today and is classified as a simple A

group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels. There is a chance for C-class flares from

Region 1057.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the

past 24 hours. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft

showed an increase of wind speed from 300 to 430 km/s following a

rise in density (1 to 22 p/cc). These signatures are indicative of a

co-rotating interactive region in advance of a weak coronal hole

high-speed stream.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (26

March) as the effects of the coronal hole high-speed stream subside.

On day two (27 March), quiet levels are expected. On day three (28

March), the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to

unsettled levels as a new coronal hole high-speed stream becomes

geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           25 Mar 088

Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  088/089/089

90 Day Mean        25 Mar 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  005/005-005/007-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/05/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/05/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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