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OK0NAG > SOLAR    03.04.10 16:51l 115 Lines 4156 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Sat, 3 Apr 2010 14:49:04 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2010 Apr 03 1447 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/xut
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                       #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


GEOALERT BRU093
UGEOA 30512 00403 1217/ 9930/
10032 20032 30032
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 03 Apr 2010 until 05 Apr 
2010
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2010  10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2010  10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2010  10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 005
COMMENT: A B7.4 flare peaking at 09:54 UT was detected today in the
Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 1059) located around S25W05. It was
accompanied by a post-eruption arcade, coronal dimmings, possibly an EIT

wave and a partial halo CME (angular width around 210 degrees). The CME

was first detected at 10:33 UT (by LASCO) and at 09:54 UT (by
SECCHI/COR2 on STEREO A). The CME was moving at a projected
plane-of-the-sky speed of around 250 km/s (according to the LASCO data).

Using some reasonable assumptions on the CME geometry, the true radial

CME speed can be estimated to be around 600 km/s. The arrival of the
corresponding ICME (possibly an interplanetary flux rope) at the Earth

is thus expected in the morning of April 6. The flux rope orientation as

inferred from the SOHO/EIT and SOHO/MDI data is ESW, although it may
change during propagation. STEREO A and B data indicate that the bulk of

the CME was propagating to the south of the ecliptic (according to the

COR2 data). If the flux rope will arrive at the Earth, we expect a
strong geomagnetic disturbance. Currently, the Earth is inside a slow
solar wind flow (460 km/s) with average (5 nT) interplanetary magnetic

field magnitude. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in

the coming hours.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 018, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 00403 1217/ 02///
10035 20760 3014/ 4//// 80002 90350
99999

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania 
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END

UGEOR 30512 00403 1217/ 02/06 03102
10054 2//// 3//// 475// 50230 60007 44714 00000
10056 2//// 3//// 473// 50120 60008 20621 02000
99999
USSPS 32404 02092 ///32 16020 45016 40803 17005 20523 21303 
USSPS 21305 02163 ///22 20016 45517 40804 23004 20123 20803 
USSPS 81202 03005 ///32 20004 30222 31305 18020 45915 40803 
UMAGF 31523 00403 ///// 0200/ 1/014 23233 32343 
 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #

# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #

#                                                                    #

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