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OK0NAG > SOLAR    06.04.10 00:06l 314 Lines 10116 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Apr 05 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted

of a few low-level B-class events, primarily from newly emerging

Region 1061 (N14W11). Region 1061 is a small D-type sunspot group.

Region 1060 (N25E45) was quiet and stable and is a small C-type

sunspot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low for the next three days (06-08 April). There is, however a

chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1061.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during

the past 24 hours. Conditions were initially quiet to unsettled, but

increased to active levels after 0300Z, and increased further to

major to severe storm levels between 0900-1200Z. The increase in

activity followed a strong shock observed at the ACE spacecraft at

0756Z which led to a sudden impulse at Earth at 0826Z (observed to

be 38 nT at the Boulder magnetometer). Numerous high-latitude

stations reported severe storm levels during the interval as did

several mid-latitude stations in the nighttime sectors. Activity

declined to active to major storm levels from 1200-1800Z and

declined further to mostly unsettled levels from 1800-2100Z. Solar

wind observations showed elevated solar wind velocity behind the

shock with speeds between 720-800 km/s with fairly strong Bz (peak

negative values around -15 nT). Solar wind speed and magnetic field

observations showed a decreasing trend during the last 4-5 hours of

the interval. The most probable source for the disturbance is the

halo CME that was observed on 03 April at 0954Z. The greater than 2

MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled to active during the early part of the

first day (06 April) due to persistent effects from the current

disturbance. In addition, another increase to unsettled levels with

a chance for active periods is expected late in the day and

continuing through the second day (07 April) due to the onset of a

high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity

levels are expected to decline to mostly unsettled levels on the

third day (08 April).

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Apr 079

Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  082/085/085

90 Day Mean        05 Apr 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  011/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  025/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/017-012/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/35/20

Minor storm           20/20/10

Major-severe storm    10/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/40/25

Minor storm           25/30/15

Major-severe storm    15/10/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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