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OK0NAG > SOLAR    07.04.10 00:04l 271 Lines 8429 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 6 Apr 2010 22:03:23 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Apr 06 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's flare activity

consisted of a single B1 X-ray event at 0402Z from Region 1060

(N26E32). In addition a small, possibly earthward directed CME was

observed in the Stereo coronagraph images and was associated with

disk activity in the SOHO EIT images beginning at about 0113Z, just

north of Region 1061 (N14W24). Region 1061 appears to be growing

slowly.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region

1061.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of

the day, with the exception of an interval of minor to major storm

levels between 0000-0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE

spacecraft showed a slow trend of increasingly negative Bz

consistent with continued influence of yesterday's CME-driven

activity. Peak negative Bz values reached -8 nT at about 1250Z.

Solar wind velocity gradually decreased during the past 24 hours and

was about 550 km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV

electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels

during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be active for the first day (07 April) due to a

favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to

be unsettled to active on the second day (08 April) due to

persistence as well as possible effects from today's CME.

Predominantly quiet levels are expected on the third day (09 April).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Apr 078

Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  082/085/085

90 Day Mean        06 Apr 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  028/049

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  025/030

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  015/020-012/015-005/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/20/05

Minor storm           20/10/01

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                45/25/05

Minor storm           25/15/01

Major-severe storm    10/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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