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OK0NAG > SOLAR    27.10.10 00:05l 234 Lines 7114 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 26 Oct 2010 22:05:26 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Oct 26 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z

to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1117 (N21W15) produced

two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest a C2.5

x-ray event at 25/2212Z.  A CME (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 375

km/s) was observed off the southwest limb, first viewed on GOES-15

SXI imagery at approximately 26/0300Z. This CME was likely

associated with a B6.5 x-ray event at 26/0311Z from Region 1115

(S31W75). The CME appeared to be earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

predominately very low with a chance for C-class events and a slight

chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1117.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the past

24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (27 - 28 October).

Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are

expected on day three (29 October) in response to the CME observed

on 26 October.

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           26 Oct 086

Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  084/084/084

90 Day Mean        26 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  007/007-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/15

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/10/20

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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