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OK0NAG > SOLAR    31.10.10 00:05l 244 Lines 7544 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Oct 30 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z

to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N20W72)

produced several B-class flares. The largest of these was a B6 flare

at 30/1333Z. Region 1117 continued to show decreases in areal

coverage and sunspot count. New Region 1120 (N39E69) was classified

as a Bxo-beta spot group and produced a B2/Sf flare at 30/0728Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels, with a slight chance for an M-class event

from Region 1117.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with a single period

of unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at

geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be predominantly quiet, with unsettled periods possible

at high latitudes late on day one (31 October). Activity is expected

to increase to quiet to active levels, with a slight chance for a

minor storm period at high latitudes, on day two (01 November) due

to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled

levels, with active periods at high latitudes, are expected on day

three (02 October).

III.  Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Oct 085

Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov  084/082/080

90 Day Mean        30 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  005/008-010/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                01/25/20

Minor storm           01/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                01/30/25

Minor storm           01/15/10

Major-severe storm    01/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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