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OK0NAG > SOLAR    05.11.10 23:04l 223 Lines 6861 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 5 Nov 2010 22:03:32 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 05 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate Levels. Region 1121

(S18E58) produced two M-class flares. An M1/Sf event occurred at

04/2358Z, and a long duration M1 event occurred at 05/1329Z. Region

1121 was classified as a Cro spot group with a beta magnetic

classification. However, limb proximity prevented a detailed

analysis of the region. Region 1120 (N38W09) continued to show 

decreases in both areal coverage and sunspot count.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels. M-class events remain likely.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for days one and two

(06-07 November).  Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active

levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (08 November).

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Nov 083

Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  084/085/086

90 Day Mean        05 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  004/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/08/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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