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OK0NAG > SOLAR    08.11.10 00:04l 227 Lines 6981 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 7 Nov 2010 22:04:16 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 07 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1121 (S18E36)

produced a C5/1F at 07/0141Z. Region 1121 was classified as an Esi

spot group, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions

were numbered. A small, faint earth-directed CME was observed on

both STEREO A and B coronagraph imagery, beginning at 07/0410Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active

levels at high latitudes, on days one and two (08-09 November).

Quiet levels are expected on day three (10 November). Further

analysis will be required to determine if the CME observed earlier

will be geoeffective. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10

MeV proton event from Region 1121.

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

Class M    85/85/85

Class X    20/20/20

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Nov 085

Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  087/090/090

90 Day Mean        07 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  002/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  007/008-006/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/09/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/10

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/03/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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