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OK0NAG > SOLAR    12.11.10 00:04l 250 Lines 7742 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 11 Nov 2010 22:03:44 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 11 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z

to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. Multiple C-class events were observed throughout the period,

the largest being a C4.7/Sf from Region 1123 (S22E03) at 11/0724Z.

Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions at 245 MHz

and a partial-halo CME observed in LASCO imagery at 11/0824Z and

STEREO A at 11/0809Z. New Region 1125 (N19E34) was numbered early in

the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days

(12-14 November).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past

24 hours, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. At

about 11/0200Z, signatures at the ACE satellite indicated an

increase in temperature, density and wind velocity. The Bz component

of the interplanetary field (IMF) occasionally turned southward

reaching a maximum deflection of -9 nT at 11/1208Z. The Bt component

of the IMF reached a maximum of 12 nT at 11/0304Z. These

disturbances are believed to be the result of a slow moving CME.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days

(12-14 November).

III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           11 Nov 085

Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  085/085/084

90 Day Mean        11 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  010/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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