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OK0NAG > SOLAR    13.11.10 00:04l 278 Lines 8731 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 12 Nov 2010 22:03:09 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 12 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z

to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. Multiple C-class events, from Region 1123 (S22W10), were

observed throughout the period, the largest being a C4.6/Sf at

12/0134Z. Associated with this event were discrete radio emissions

at 245 MHz and 610 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated

shock velocity of 505 km/s, and finally LASCO C2 imagery showed a

CME liftoff at 12/0248Z. Region 1124 (N14E12) has shown some growth

in spot count and areal coverage but has remained quiet. New Region

1126 (S28E73) was numbered late in the forecast period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for

the next three days (13-15 November).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with

isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes for the past 24

hours. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed from

11/2100Z - 12/1300Z.  At around 12/1500Z,  signatures from the ACE

spacecraft showed a decrease in density, solar wind speed, and

temperature as the geomagnetic field started to recover from

yesterdays CME driven disturbance. Quiet levels were observed for

the remainder of the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13

November). Activity is expected to increase to mostly unsettled

levels on day two (14 November) and unsettled to active levels on

day three (15 November). This increase in activity is due to the

arrival of multiple small CME's mixed with the effects of a

recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           12 Nov 085

Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  085/084/084

90 Day Mean        12 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  012/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  011/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  007/008-010/012-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/25/30

Minor storm           01/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/30/35

Minor storm           01/10/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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