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OK0NAG > SOLAR    14.11.10 00:04l 244 Lines 7516 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 13 Nov 2010 22:03:44 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced

the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.

Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.

An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared

from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible

on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z

with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be

associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is forecast to be low

with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16

November).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron

flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active

conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be

mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3

(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock

from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Nov 085

Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  085/085/085

90 Day Mean        13 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  009/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-018/018-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/40/50

Minor storm           10/45/20

Major-severe storm    05/15/10

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/30/50

Minor storm           10/50/30

Major-severe storm    05/20/15



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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