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OK0NAG > SOLAR    15.11.10 00:02l 232 Lines 7162 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 14 Nov 2010 22:02:01 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 14 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S22W37) produced a

C1/Sf flare at 14/0001Z. Region 1124 (N14W17) has grown in spot

count as well as area while producing several B-class x-ray events.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with C-class flares likely for the next three days (15-17 November).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of

unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2

MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during

the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and

a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the

forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November.

Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the

chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active

with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November).

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Nov 086

Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  085/085/085

90 Day Mean        14 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  004/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  006/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  020/020-015/015-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/50/30

Minor storm           45/20/10

Major-severe storm    15/10/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/50/40

Minor storm           50/30/20

Major-severe storm    20/15/10



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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