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OK0NAG > SOLAR    18.11.10 00:03l 225 Lines 6859 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 17 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z

to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1126 (S31E07) has grown is sunspot number and areal

coverage but remained quiet and stable. No new regions were numbered

today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low to low levels for the next three days (18-20 November).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24

hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a decrease in

solar wind speed from 540km/s to 440km/s as effects of a recurrent

coronal hole high-speed stream subside. The greater than 2 MeV

electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the

period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (18-20

November).

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Nov 091

Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  090/090/088

90 Day Mean        17 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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