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OK0NAG > SOLAR    20.11.10 00:17l 227 Lines 6918 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 19 Nov 2010 22:04:16 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2010 Nov 19 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2010

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z

to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24 hours. All three visible active regions remained stable and

quiet. A filament disappeared near N30E41 at 18/1721Z. A

slow-moving, CME was detected at 18/2224Z by SOHO LASCO c2 imagery

and did not appear to be earth directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low levels for the next three days (20-22 November).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speeds

decreasing throughout the period, from 550km/s to 350 km/s, as the

effects of a coronal hole high-speed stream wane. The greater than 2

MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during

the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (20-22

November).

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Nov 084

Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  084/084/082

90 Day Mean        19 Nov 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  004/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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