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OK0NAG > SOLAR    03.06.11 00:03l 265 Lines 8721 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 02 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1226 (S22E01) produced

several C-class events during the period.  This region is a Dsi

group with a beta magnetic classification.  A further analysis of

LASCO imagery correlated the C4/1f at 01/1708Z from Region 1226 to a

Earth directed partial-halo CME.  This event was observed by STEREO

COR2 imagery at 01/2009Z.  Region 1227 (S19E13) is also a D-type

group with a beta magnetic classification.  It produced a C3/2n at

02/0746Z with an associated Type IV radio sweep, and a Earth

directed partial-halo CME.  STEREO COR2 and LASCO C3 imagery

observed the event with a plane-of-sky speed of 831 km/s.  New

Region 1232 (N10E61) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a slight chance for an M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV

electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the

period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (03 June).  Active

conditions with isolated minor storm levels are expected for day two

(04 June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective,

and additional effects from recent CME activity.  Day three (05

June) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated

active conditions.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Jun 112

Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  112/110/110

90 Day Mean        02 Jun 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  009/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  008/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  008/012-020/020-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/40/30

Minor storm           05/20/10

Major-severe storm    01/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/45/35

Minor storm           10/25/15

Major-severe storm    01/10/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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