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OK0NAG > SOLAR    05.06.11 00:05l 265 Lines 8760 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 04 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z

to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 1226 (S21W25) produced

a C1 at 03/2242Z.  This region remains a D-type group with a beta

magnetic classification. All other numbered regions remained stable.

No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a slight chance for a M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  The ACE spacecraft

detected an interplanetary shock passage at 04/1958Z.  Solar winds

jumped from around 325 km/s to 455 km/s, density increased, and the

IMF Bt went from 5nT to 20 nT.  A geomagnetic sudden impulse was

observed at 04/2045Z (54 nT) on the Boulder USGS magnetometer.  This

signature is consistent with the arrival of a CME. The greater than

2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels

throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions,

and isolated major storming at high-latitudes, for day one (05

June).  The source for the activity is a combination of continued

CME effects, and the arrival of a geoeffective coronal hole

high-speed stream.  For day two (06 June) the geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.

By day three (07 June) mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected

as the activity subsides.

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Jun 103

Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  102/100/098

90 Day Mean        04 Jun 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  020/020-015/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/30/15

Minor storm           20/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                45/35/25

Minor storm           25/20/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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