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OK0NAG > SOLAR    06.06.11 00:04l 385 Lines 12939 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 05 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z

to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels with only a

single B3 x-ray event recorded at 05/0214Z from Region 1226

(S21W38). New Region 1233 (S18W29) was numbered as a unipolar spot

group. No significant changes were observed with the remaining

regions on the disk. During the period, LASCO C3 and STEREO-B COR2

imagery observed three separate CMEs. The first two CME's were

back-sided, and appeared to originate from the vicinity of old

Region 1222 (N17, L=160) which rotated off the visible disk on 31

May. CME number one was first observed in STEREO Ahead EUVI 195

imagery at 04/0645Z and later in LASCO C3 imagery at 04/2212Z as a

partial-halo CME lifting of the east limb. The plane-of-sky speed

was estimated at about 1380 km/s. CME number two was first observed

in STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 imagery at 04/2145Z and later in LASCO C3

imagery at 05/0733ZZ as an asymmetric full-halo CME lifting off the

east limb. The plane-of-sky speed for this CME was estimated at

about 2160 km/s. A third CME originated from an eruptive, 16 degree

filament centered near N34E37. The filament was first observed

lifting off in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 05/0341Z, with the

partial-halo CME first visible in STEREO Behind COR2 imagery at

05/0733Z. The plane-of-sky speed for the third CME was estimated at

490 km/s.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (06 - 08

June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. The

increase in activity was in response to the arrival of the 02 June

CME, coupled with a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.

After the ACE spacecraft detected the initial interplanetary shock

at 04/1958Z, wind velocities rose steadily for the next four hours

and reached a peak during the period of 560 km/s at 05/0020Z. Bt

reached a maximum of 28 nT at 05/0053Z while the Bz component of the

interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reached a maximum southward

value of -19 nT at 04/2157Z. The Bz component remained strongly

southward through about 05/0000Z where it turned strongly northward

to about +18 nT through 05/0700Z. Thereafter, and through the

balance of the period, the Bz component of the IMF did not vary much

beyond +/- 7 nT. Associated with the first two CMEs, observed off

the east limb, was a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement that

reached a maximum of 3.9 pfu at 05/0050Z. Proton flux values decayed

to below 1 pfu after 05/0205Z and remained below through the

remainder of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at

geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated high latitude

active periods, on day one (06 June) due to lingering effects from

the CME and recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On days two

and three (07 - 08 June), mostly quiet conditions are expected as

the activity subsides. Other than the brief proton ehnhancement

observed early on 05 June, no other effects are expected from the

three CMEs observed on 04 and 05 June.

III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Jun 103

Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun  100/098/096

90 Day Mean        05 Jun 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  011/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  020/020

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/010-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/05/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/05/05

Minor storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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