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OK0NAG > SOLAR    07.06.11 00:06l 255 Lines 8369 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 06 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1226 (S22W52)

produced a few low-level C-class events. During the past 24 hours,

Region 1227 (S21W35) decayed from a D-type to an H-type spot group.

Region 1232 (N08E07) developed trailer spots to become a C-type from

an H-type spot group. A 12 degree long filament, centered near

N25W34, erupted during the period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed

material movement along a large filament channel, first visible at

06/0441Z, which continued through about 06/0900Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days (07 - 09

June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The Bz

component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much

beyond +/- 4 nT. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE

spacecraft, steadily declined through period from about 500 km/s to

near 420 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous

orbit remained enhanced through the period, reaching a maximum of

4.8 pfu at 06/0405Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days

(07 - 09 June).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Jun 100

Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun  098/096/095

90 Day Mean        06 Jun 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  020/027

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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