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OK0NAG > SOLAR    07.06.11 23:02l 299 Lines 9951 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 07 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past

24 hours. Region 1226 (S21W64) was the most active and produced the

largest event of the period, an M2/2N flare at 07/0641Z. Associated

with this event was a Type II radio sweep, a Type IV radio sweep, a

Tenflare of 720 sfu, and a full halo asymmetric CME with an

estimated plane of sky speed of 1155 km/s. Region 1226 had

previously produced only low level x-ray events and has lost most of

it spots and magnetic complexity after the M-flare. The other

regions on the disk remained stable and quiet.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three

days (08-10 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the

past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,

increased from a steady 400 km/s to around 500 km/s briefly and

decreased back to around 430 km/s. A 10 MeV and a 100 MeV proton

event, are currently in progress. The greater than 10 MeV proton

flux began at 07/0820Z and reached a peak flux of 72.9 pfu at

07/1820Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux began at 07/0720Z and

reached a peak of 4.5 pfu at 07/1025Z. Both of these events are

associated with the M2/2N flare at 07/0641Z from Region 1226 and are

currently declining.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 June) and on the

beginning of day two (09 June). Midday on day two, active to minor

storm levels are expected as the CME, associated with today's M2/2N

flare from Region 1226, becomes geoeffective. With the arrival of

this CME, there is a slight chance for major storm periods at high

latitudes. On day three (10 June), as the effects of the CME

continue, active levels, with chance for minor storm periods, are

also expected.

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     99/99/50

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 Jun 096

Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun  096/094/094

90 Day Mean        07 Jun 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  005/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  005/005-020/025-018/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/20/30

Minor storm           10/40/30

Major-severe storm    01/25/20

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/30

Minor storm           10/45/35

Major-severe storm    01/30/25



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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