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OK0NAG > SOLAR    09.06.11 00:05l 275 Lines 9177 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 08 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z

to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region

1226 (S20W81) produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1226

continued to gradually decay as it approached the west limb and was

classified as a 1-spot Axx type. The remaining numbered regions were

inactive. No new regions were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low through the period (09 - 11 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to

minor storm levels occurred during 07/2100 - 08/0600Z, associated

with elevated solar wind speeds combined with increased IMF Bt and

periods of southward IMF Bz. Mostly quiet conditions occurred after

08/0600Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at

07/0820Z reached a maximum of 73 pfu at 07/1820Z and ended at

08/1710Z. The greater than 100 MeV event that began at 07/0735Z

reached a maximum of 4 pfu at 07/1025Z and ended at 08/0210Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is

expected to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (09 June) due to

the arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 07

June. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day 2 (10 June)

with a chance for minor to major storm levels as CME effects

persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled

levels on day 3 (11 June) with a chance for active levels as CME

effects subside. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton

event at geosynchronous orbit on days 1 - 2 (09 - 10 June) due to

the arrival of the CME mentioned above.

III.  Event Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     50/50/25

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           08 Jun 090

Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  088/088/088

90 Day Mean        08 Jun 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  008/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun  011/020

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  012/020-018/025-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/30/20

Minor storm           10/25/10

Major-severe storm    01/15/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/40/30

Minor storm           20/30/20

Major-severe storm    10/20/10



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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