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OK0NAG > SOLAR    11.06.11 00:04l 261 Lines 8556 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 10 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare occurred at

10/1751Z and appeared to originate from old Region 1226 (S22,

L=037), which crossed the west limb yesterday. Region 1234 (S16E43)

produced an isolated B-class flare and remained a simply-structured

Bxo-type group. No new regions were assigned.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low through the period (11 - 13 June) with a chance for an isolated

C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels during the period.

Active levels occurred at Boulder during 09/2100 - 10/0000Z

associated with increased solar wind speeds and IMF Bt, coupled with

a period of southward IMF Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred

after 10/0000Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) occurred at

10/0855Z (15 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was in response

to the arrival of the halo-coronal mass ejection observed on 07

June. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit

reached high levels during the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (11 -

13 June) with a chance for brief active levels during 11 - 12 June

due to a coronal hole high-speed stream, expected to commence on 11

June.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           10 Jun 087

Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  086/086/086

90 Day Mean        10 Jun 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  007/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  010/010-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           15/15/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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