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OK0NAG > SOLAR    14.06.11 00:07l 285 Lines 9547 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 13 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z

to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 x-ray event was

observed at 13/0055Z from an area of enhanced brightening on the

east limb near N20. Region 1234 (S16E07) remained the only spotted

region on the disk. The region produced a few B-class events, the

largest a B9 x-ray event at 13/0616Z. Region 1234 indicated little

change over the past 24 hours and remained a simple B-type, bi-polar

group. A partial halo CME was observed lifting off the SE limb,

first observed in C2 SOHO LASCO imagery at 13/0424Z, and later in C3

imagery at 13/0454Z. The plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at near

600 km/s. The CME appeared to originate from a bright area of plage

centered near old Region 1223 (S17, L=125), first viewed in STEREO-B

EUVI imagery at 13/0355Z as an area of northward surging.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low for the next three days (14 - 16 June) with a chance for an

isolated C-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar

wind data indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole high

speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds averaging about 450 km/s. The

greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained

enhanced with a maximum flux reading of 4.8 pfu at 13/1010Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (14 June)

with a chance for active levels due to continued CH HSS effects.

Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on days two and

three (15 - 16 June) as the CH HSS subsides. The greater than 10 MeV

protons are expected to remain enhanced through 14 June, returning

to background levels by 15 June.

III.  Event Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     10/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Jun 087

Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  089/091/093

90 Day Mean        13 Jun 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/05/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/10/05

Minor storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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