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OK0NAG > SOLAR    15.06.11 00:06l 287 Lines 9534 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 14 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z

to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels during the period. New

Region 1236 (N17E64) rotated onto the disk as a D-type spot group

and produced two low-level C-class events. A north-south oriented

filament channel, located near the SE limb, erupted during the

period. SDO/AIA 193 imagery revealed material movement along the

large channel, first visible at 14/0609Z, and movement continued

through about 14/1500Z. Associated with the filament eruption was a

partial halo CME off the east limb, first visible in STEREO-Behind

COR2 imagery at 14/0810Z. A plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at

about 750 km/s. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels with a slight chance for an M-class event all three days

of the forecast period (15 - 17 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an

isolated active period observed between 14/0900 - 1200Z. This

activity was due to continued effects from a recurrent coronal hole

high speed stream. During the period, solar wind velocities rose

steadily from near 450 km/s to about 550 km/s. The Bz component of

the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 8 nT while Bt

varied between 5 and 10 nT. The greater than 10 MeV proton

enhancement, present since 11 June, decayed to background levels

early on 14 June.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (15 June),

with a chance for active levels due to continued high speed stream

effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on

days two and three (16 - 17 June) as high speed stream effects

subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           14 Jun 099

Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  100/105/105

90 Day Mean        14 Jun 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/05/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/10/05

Minor storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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