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OK0NAG > SOLAR    16.06.11 00:03l 256 Lines 8436 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 15 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z

to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity reached moderate levels during the

period. An impulsive M1/Sf flare was observed from Region 1236

(N17E58) at 14/2147Z. The region continued to rotate on to the disk,

and now appears as an E-type group with Beta-Delta magnetic

characteristics. Region 1234 (S15W22) produced a C3/1f at 15/1432Z.

The region doubled in area and spot count, but remained a simple

bi-polar group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for M-class events all three days of the period (16 -

18 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities steadily

decreased through the period from about 550 km/s to near 450 km/s.

The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field began the

period weakly south to about -3 nT. At 15/0900Z, Bz turned weakly

north to about +3 nT, and remained so through the balance of the

period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one (16 June) and

the majority of day two (17 June). Late on day two, and through day

three (18 June), quiet to isolated active conditions are possible

due to glancing blow effects from the CME observed early on 14 June.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Jun 102

Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  105/105/105

90 Day Mean        15 Jun 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  007/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  007/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  005/005-006/007-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/10/15

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/15/20

Minor storm           01/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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