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OK0NAG > SOLAR    17.06.11 00:09l 289 Lines 9674 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 16 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1236 (N17E58)

produced a C7/1n flare at 16/1022Z with weak radio emissions in the

2695MHz to 15.4 GHz range, including a 130 sfu 10cm burst. The

region showed little change over the past 24 hours. Region 1234

(S16W29) produced low-level B-class activity during the period. The

region showed modest growth in spot count. Two low-level C-class

x-ray events were observed from a region behind the east limb near

S17. These events most likely originated from old Region 1223 (S17,

L=130). A 10 degree eruptive filament, centered near S23W35, was

observed lifting off just SW of Region 1234. Filament movement was

first observed on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 16/1426Z with a subsequent

narrow CME off the SW limb, first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery

at 16/1612Z. Initial plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at 190

km/s. This slow CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for M-class events all three days of the period (17 -

19 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocities

were steady at about 450 km/s through 16/1500Z when a slight

increase to about 480 km/s was observed. Coupled with the wind

increase were slight rises in temperature and density, along with a

general increase in low energy particles.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active

periods on day one and two (17 - 18 June). The forecasted increase

in activity is in response to possible effects of a glancing blow

from the CME observed early on 14 June. By day three (19 June),

field conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Jun 103

Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun  105/105/105

90 Day Mean        16 Jun 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  007/007

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  006/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/10

Minor storm           10/10/01

Major-severe storm    10/10/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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