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OK0NAG > SOLAR    18.06.11 00:03l 264 Lines 8684 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 17 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z

to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region

1234 (S16W48) and Region 1236 (N17E33) each produced isolated

B-class x-ray flares. A B7 x-ray flare occurred near the SE limb at

17/0646Z. Region 1234 showed a gradual increase in interior spots

during the period and was classified as a Dsi group with a simple

bipolar magnetic structure. Region 1236 showed a gradual decrease in

magnetic complexity in its trailer portion and was classified as a

Dho with a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were

numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were

observed during the period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

through the period (18 - 20 June) with a chance for an isolated

M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period

was observed during 07/0000 - 0300Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse

(SI) was observed at Boulder at 17/0244Z (31 nT) and indicated the

arrival of the partial-halo CME observed on 14 June.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18 June).

Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (19 June).

An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (20

June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the

field.

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Jun 104

Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  105/105/105

90 Day Mean        17 Jun 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun  013/013

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  007/008-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/10/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/25

Minor storm           01/01/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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