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OK0NAG > SOLAR    20.06.11 00:03l 249 Lines 8277 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jun 19 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z

to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Regions 1234 (S16W74) and 1237

(S15E39) each produced a C-class flare during the period. Region

1234 showed no significant change as it approached the west limb.

Region 1236 (N15E06) produced an isolated B-class flare. It showed

no significant changes and remained an E-type group with a

beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C1/Sf flare from Region 1237 at

19/1637Z was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection

(CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 519 km/s and

appeared to have an Earthward component. New Region 1238 (S17E11), a

two-spot Axx group, was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low during the period (20 - 22 June).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2

(20 - 21 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to a

coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to

quiet levels on day 3 (22 June). The CME mentioned above is not

expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

Class M    15/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Jun 099

Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  100/095/095

90 Day Mean        19 Jun 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/10

Minor storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/25/15

Minor storm           10/10/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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