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OK0NAG > SOLAR    15.12.11 23:05l 229 Lines 7530 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 15 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z

to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. There were two, low level

C-class flares during the past 24 hours, both of which appeared to

be from Region 1367 which is behind west limb. There was a marked

decrease in activity and background levels after 0900Z as Region

1367's loop tops rotated completely out view. Region 1374 (S17W26)

continues to be the largest group on the disk but was quiet and

stable. A coronal mass ejection/erupting prominence was observed

from the southwest limb at about 0736Z but is not expected to be

geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low. Very low levels are expected to prevail but there is

still a chance for isolated C-class events.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet.

III.  Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Dec 126

Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  124/124/124

90 Day Mean        15 Dec 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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