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OK0NAG > SOLAR    17.12.11 00:06l 211 Lines 6934 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 16 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z

to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  The only flare in the

past 24 hours was a B4 at 0820Z from Region 1377 (N12E15).  Region

1374 (S18W37) remains the largest spot group on the disk but

continues to be stable.  New Region 1378 (S17W09) was assigned and

is classified as a D-type sunspot group.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (17-19

December).

III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           16 Dec 121

Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  122/122/122

90 Day Mean        16 Dec 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  002/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  001/001

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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