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OK0NAG > SOLAR    18.12.11 00:07l 211 Lines 6871 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 17 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z

to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event in the past

24 hours was a C1 flare at 0501Z from Region 1376 (N21W04).  Region

1374 (S18W50) is the largest region on the disk but remains stable

and quiet.  New Regions 1379 (S29W22) and 1380 (S20E70) were

assigned.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (18-20

December).

III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           17 Dec 120

Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  120/120/120

90 Day Mean        17 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  002/000

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  000/000

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/05

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/20/10

Major-severe storm    05/10/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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