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OK0NAG > SOLAR    20.12.11 00:05l 237 Lines 7877 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 19 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z

to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past

24  hours. A total of 9 numbered regions populate the visible disk.

Regions 1376 (N19W31) has been the most active region in the past

few days. The largest flare of the period was a B8 x-ray event at

1413Z from Region 1376. Both Regions 1381 (S18E10) and 1382 (S18E18)

continue to grow and evolve and remain the most magnetically complex

regions on the disk. Regions 1383 (N04E68) was numbered early in the

period.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

predominantly low levels for the next three days (20 - 22 December).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be remain at quiet levels for the next three days (20 -

22 December). Even though quiet conditions are expected, a small

coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on

day 1 (20 December).

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Dec 128

Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  130/130/125

90 Day Mean        19 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  003/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  003/004

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  006/006-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/01/01

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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