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OK0NAG > SOLAR    21.12.11 00:05l 223 Lines 7449 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Dec 20 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z

to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24

hours. Region 1367 (N19W46) produced the largest event of the

period,  a C2 event at 2036Z. Region 1367 also has shown the most

growth in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. A new region was

numbered today, Region 1384 (N12E61),  as it rotated onto the east

limb. Several CME's were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery but

none appear to have any Earth directed components.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels for the next three days (21 - 23 December).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the

past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days

(21 - 23 December).

III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec

Class M    05/05/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           20 Dec 137

Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  140/140/135

90 Day Mean        20 Dec 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  006/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  004/005-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                01/01/01

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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